ТHЕ ALGORITHM OF ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL RISKS UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCOMPLETE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR PARAMETERS

Autor: L. O. Lomovskykh, O. V. Mandych, O. O. Kovalenko, N. A. Karasova, A. Orzeł
Jazyk: English<br />Ukrainian
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Zdroj: Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики, Vol 3, Iss 30 (2019)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2306-4994
2310-8770
DOI: 10.18371/fcaptp.v3i30.179519
Popis: The risk analysis algorithms, which are offered by domestic scientists for Ukrainian farmers, are limited in use and are often obsolete. The situation in agriculture of Ukraine changes quickly enough –new agricultural machinery and new technologies appears, this requires a new management. At the same time, the use of approved decision support systems and risk analysis software systems tested in developed countries is not possible in Ukraine. This is due to the lack of accompanying information providing. The databases on factors influencing risk are absent both at the national level and at the regional level in Ukraine. Today, the creation of such databases does not solve the problem, as the necessary precondition of modern software systems for risk analysis is the availability of data covering significant time period. Thus, the problem of the development of algorithm for such an economic-mathematical model of information processing that would be able to work effectively under the condition of a lack of data on factors influencing risks needed for the effective use in the agricultural sector of Ukraine became a topical issue. The developed algorithm of the economic-mathematical model of the system of risk analysis involves the replenishment of the required amount of information by an expert in the field of agriculture and the subsequent automatic operation of the software complex. The factor of incompleteness of information complicates the work of decision support system, extends the time of information processing. In the course of the research it is suggested to use both the analytical approach and the simulation model for the formation of the algorithm. The appropriateness of choosing one or another method is determined by the availability of the required amount of reliable primary statistical information. Reducing the time of the task is facilitated by the formation of library working arrays, which is accumulated during the operation of the automatic risk analysis system. The pilot test of the suggested algorithm of the economic and mathematical model of the system for decision support and risk analysis for the cases of incomplete data on their parameters for Ukrainian farms, which grow grains and leguminous crops, allowed to get the first practical results. As a result of risk analysis the biggest risk for farms which grow grains and leguminous crops is identified, namely, the reduction of sales volumes, while the smallest risk, the impact of which was overestimated by scientists before, is a reduction in the price for products of these farms. Thus, the efficiency of the proposed algorithm of decision support system is proved.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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