Capturing the impact of economic forces on the dry bulk freight market

Autor: Vangelis Tsioumas, Yiannis Smirlis, Stratos Papadimitriou
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Maritime Transport Research, Vol 2, Iss , Pp 100018- (2021)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2666-822X
DOI: 10.1016/j.martra.2021.100018
Popis: This study focuses on the construction of a composite indicator which is designed to measure the component of economic activity that drives demand for sea transport of dry bulk commodities. Various economic factors are identified and then reduced to the most critical ones using statistical analysis. The study tests three different approaches for the aggregation and weighing of the selected variables. The statistical results indicate that a Deviation-based Goal Programming model is the most robust method for the construction of a composite indicator in the context of the dry cargo shipping freight market. Granger Causality and Impulse Response analysis are used to investigate the association between the new index and the dry bulk freight rates. Overall, the results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed composite indicator. This new index may allow more effective monitoring of economic developments and more accurate assessment of their aggregate impact. In this regard, the proposed indicator could potentially serve as a decision support tool for ship operators and other maritime practitioners. This is the first time that the most critical elements of the economic environment of the shipping freight market are captured through a composite indicator.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals