May material bottlenecks hamper the global energy transition towards the 1.5 °C target?

Autor: Simon Schlichenmaier, Tobias Naegler
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Energy Reports, Vol 8, Iss , Pp 14875-14887 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2352-4847
DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2022.11.025
Popis: Potentially scarce materials play an important role in many current and emerging technologies needed for a sustainable energy and mobility system. This paper examines the global demand for 25 potentially scarce materials that would result from an energy system that is compatible with the 1.5 °C target. It further analyses the risk for short- and mid-term material shortages. To determine the material requirements, an extensive prospective database was built up on the specific demand of these materials in key technologies. A second database describes the potential development of sub-technology market shares within a technology class. A material flow analysis model was used to determine the annual and cumulative material requirements as well as the recycling potential in the underlying scenario. The results show that production of all materials has to increase, in some cases significantly, in a short period of time to meet the demand for the energy and transportation system. In addition, the cumulative demand for some materials significantly exceeds current reserves and even resources. In particular, lithium (demand increase (DI) more than factor 10, cumulated demand (CD) exceeds reserves up to factor 2), cobalt (DI/CD:
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