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[Objective] In the context of synergistic pollution and carbon reduction, revealing the coupling relationship between industrial growth and carbon emissions based on different growth rates is crucial for promoting low-carbon development in interprovincial boundary regions. [Methods] This study focused on the Huaihai Economic Zone and used an industrial growth-carbon emission decoupling model to conduct the research. [Results] (1) During the study period, the decoupling relationship between industrial growth and carbon emissions had evolved from weak decoupling to strong negative decoupling. Counties in a decoupled state tended to be concentrated around central cities such as Xuzhou. The coupling coordination had continuously improved, with the proportion of highly coordinated and extremely coordinated counties increasing from 18.64% to 83.05%. (2) The industrial growth-carbon emission asynchronous growth index exhibited a pattern of rise-fall-rise-fall, consistently in the phase of weak expansion of carbon emissions. In terms of spatial distribution, the relative growth rate of most counties’ industries exceeded the relative growth rate of carbon emissions, and over 40% of the counties showed a downward trend. (3) Factors such as technological innovation, environmental regulation, and carbon sequestration capacity had a positive and strengthening effect. The impact of factors such as industrialization level, the proportion of resource-based industries, and interprovincial boundaries on the asynchronous growth relationship changed from positive promotion to negative repression. Industrial transformation and the evolution of interprovincial boundaries were the main driving forces. (4) The mismatch between the market dominance of industrial growth and the government-led carbon emission control, as well as the mismatch between the external driving force of industrial development and the internal driving force, have caused spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the asynchronous growth of industrial growth and carbon emissions. This has also spurred the strategic demand for regional coordinated development, which is interconnected with and mutually influenced by the asynchronous growth. [Conclusion] Industrial low carbonization is the main path to promote the coordinated development of industrial growth and carbon emission, while the spatiotemporal coordinated evolution and development of industrial growth and carbon emission is conducive to boosting the low-carbon and green development of industry. |
