Advancing debris flow hazard and risk assessments using debris flow modeling and radar derived rainfall intensity data

Autor: Wasklewicz Thad, Guthrie Richard, Knibbs Graham, Rossi Rebecca
Jazyk: English<br />French
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: E3S Web of Conferences, Vol 415, p 05029 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2267-1242
DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202341505029
Popis: Debris flow hazard and risk assessments are critical tools in mitigating and planning for these events. Existing debris flow hazard assessments can provide a rapid view of the likelihood of debris flows in recently burned watersheds and along stream segments within the watershed. Furthermore, debris flow volumes can be predicted for these watersheds and along the stream segments. Advances in modeling and remote-sensing data can add further value to the rapid assessments. Here, modeled debris flow volumes and a more detailed understanding of rainfall conditions highlight a need to reconcile debris flow probabilities and volumes using local conditions. Modeled debris flow volumes are consistently lower than even the lowest predicted volumes from empirical models used in the debris flow hazard assessments. Watershed probability and volume relations also over predict based on our probabilities derived from rainfall intensity from Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System 1-hr data. Probability and volume measures need to be further considered as the conservative measures of the rapid assessments have implication for risk analyses required for planning and management decisions, and ultimately for design and cost of mitigation to manage risk.
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