| Popis: |
Shallow groundwater is one of the primary sources of fresh water, providing river base-flow and root-zone soil water between precipitation events. However, with urbanization and the increase in demand for water for irrigation, shallow groundwater bodies are being endangered. In the present study, 101 hydrographs of shallow groundwater monitoring wells from the watershed of the westernmost brackish lake in Europe were examined for the years 1997–2012 using a combination of dynamic factor and cluster analyses. The aims were (i) the determination of the main driving factors of the water table, (ii) the determination of the spatial distribution and importance of these factors, and (iii) the estimation of shallow groundwater levels using the obtained model. Results indicate that the dynamic factor models were capable of accurately estimating the hydrographs (avg. mean squared error = 0.29 for standardized water levels), meaning that the two driving factors identified (evapotranspiration and precipitation) describe most of the variances of the fluctuations in water level. Both meteorological parameters correlated with an obtained dynamic factor (r = −0.41 for evapotranspiration & r = 0.76 for precipitation). The strength of these effects displayed a spatial pattern, as did the factor loadings. On this basis, the monitoring wells could be objectively distinguished into two groups using hierarchical cluster analysis and verified by linear discriminant analysis in 98% of the cases. This grouping in turn was determined to be primarily related to the elevation and the geology of the area. It can be concluded that the application of the data analysis toolset suggested herein permits a more efficient, objective, and reproducible delineation of the primary driving factors of the shallow groundwater table in the area. Additionally, it represents an effective toolset for the forecasting of water table variations, a quality which, in the view of the likelihood of further climate change to come, is a distinctive advantage. The knowledge of these factors is crucial to a better understanding of the hydrogeological processes that characterize the water table and, thus, to developing a proper water resource management strategy for the area. |
