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Abstract Objective Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels. Methods Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored. Results In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p |
