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Objective: to calculate and justify the probabilistic characteristics of the economic risks of the company selling goods with profit and suffering from the burden of direct taxation. The economic nature and mechanisms of tax risks are described. Methods: probabilistic-dynamic method, based on a few mathematically formulated principles - probability principle, the principle of measurement, etc. The method allows to find the optimal distributions of the phase variables (components of the decisions vector) of the production system, numerical characteristics of which (mathematical expectation, variance, covariance, etc.) bear the necessary information about the optimal properties of the economic actors’behavior. Results: the basic equation of probabilistic-dynamic method - the Schrodinger-Bellman equation - was integrated;the function of state was found; the normal distribution was obtained of the vector of economic decisions in the phase space of the firm. The phase trajectories and the effective areas of the variables dispersion phase were researched. It is shown that at the intersection of the variation areas of normal distributions, corresponding to two different production conditions, there is a possibility of spontaneous transitions between these states, accompanied by losses of capital assets of the company. The transition probabilities and the expression for average losses of working capital were calculated. It is shown that the inclusion of weak field tax perturbation leads to the modulation of the probability curves and average losses obtained earlier in the work by V.A. Slavin and I.N. Urusova "Market dynamics of production-economic system. 2. Transitions between production conditions. Elements of risks theory" for the company in the absence of taxation. The author outlines the nature of modulation of the main characteristics of tax risks related to the fact that the tax field influences the production system by phase trajectories perturbation described by periodic functions of time, their frequency equal to the frequency of technological cycles of the firm production units. The work states a number of correlations between the indicators of production processes and taxation processes. The effect of progressive taxation on the company is described. Scientific novelty: for the first time, the aricle demonstrates the possibility to theoretically describe the economic risks of the taxation company and to establish the economic nature of their essential characteristics. Practical significance: the obtained results allow to form a complex of practical programs, aimed at the optimization of the company performance indicators for the purpose of reducing the probability its assets of loss under taxation. |
