| Autor: |
Jürgen Grieser, Tim Staeger, Christian-D. Schönwiese |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2007 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 16, Iss 5, Pp 553-564 (2007) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
0941-2948 |
| DOI: |
10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0235 |
| Popis: |
For 1769 meteorological stations in Germany records of daily precipitation amounts with not more than one missing day are available for the period 1951 to 2000. We fit Gumbel distributions to annual maximum daily, two-day and three-day precipitation amounts. We show that the Gumbel distribution fits very well to the observations and provide maps of best parameter estimates of the Gumbel distribution on a 0.0833° × 0.0833° grid (5 minutes grid, grid-cell size below 10 km). The regional structure of the estimated parameters reveals that the average extreme precipitation amount depends strongly on altitude while for most of the region the variability shows no such dependence. We furthermore provide an investigation of the uncertainty in the common estimation of the parameters. The results of this investigation are used in order to evaluate the reliability of estimated return periods and thresholds from observations. Precipitation thresholds attributed to certain return periods can be estimated accurately from observations even for large return periods. The estimates of return periods attributed to given thresholds of precipitation amounts, however, are much more prone to uncertainty. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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