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The role of artificial intelligence (AI) in education has been extensively studied, focusing on its ability to enhance learning and teaching processes. However, the precise impact of AI adoption on academic performance in open and distance learning (ODL) remains largely unexplored. This systematic literature review critically evaluates AI's impact on academic performance within ODL environments. Drawing from a curated selection of 64 papers from an initial pool of 700, spanning from 2017 to 2023 and sourced from Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science, this study delves into the multifaceted role of AI in enhancing learning outcomes. The meta-analysis reveals a diverse methodological landscape: machine learning methods, employed in 29.69 % of the studies, stand out for their ability to predict academic achievement, which is matched in prevalence by classical statistical methods. Although less common at 3.13 %, hybrid methods are a burgeoning area of research, while a significant 40.63 % of works prioritise nonempirical methods, focusing on theoretical analysis and literature reviews. This investigation highlights the critical factors driving AI adoption in education and its tangible benefits for student performance. It identifies a crucial literature gap: the absence of a process-based framework designed to forecast AI's educational impacts with greater precision, especially across gender and regional lines. By proposing this framework, this study contributes to the academic discourse on AI in education. It underscores the urgent need for structured methodologies to navigate the challenges and opportunities of AI integration. This framework, aligned with UNESCO's 2030 educational objectives, promises to bridge educational divides, ensuring equitable access to quality education across diverse demographics. The findings advocate for future research to design, refine, and test such a framework, paving the way for more inclusive and effective educational technologies in ODL settings. |