Strong El Niño Events Lead to Robust Multi‐Year ENSO Predictability

Autor:	N. Lenssen, P. DiNezio, L. Goddard, C. Deser, Y. Kushnir, S. J. Mason, M. Newman, Y. Okumura
Jazyk:	angličtina
Rok vydání:	2024
Předmět:	climate prediction ENSO El Niño La niña multi‐year prediction Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809
Zdroj:	Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 12, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu:	article
ISSN:	1944-8007 0094-8276
DOI:	10.1029/2023GL106988
Popis:	Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon—the dominant source of climate variability on seasonal to multi‐year timescales—is predictable a few seasons in advance. Forecast skill at longer multi‐year timescales has been found in a few models and forecast systems, but the robustness of this predictability across models has not been firmly established owing to the cost of running dynamical model predictions at longer lead times. In this study, we use a massive collection of multi‐model hindcasts performed using model analogs to show that multi‐year ENSO predictability is robust across models and arises predominantly due to skillful prediction of multi‐year La Nina events following strong El Niño events.
Databáze:	Directory of Open Access Journals
Externí odkaz:	https://doaj.org/article/48dd67988bb043b891277d80ad15d7ad Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text View record in DOAJ