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Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategies are pivotal in addressing climate change. Optimizing land use structure is a fundamental approach to achieving low-carbon development within a given territory. This study focuses on Fujian Province as the research subject, predicting carbon emissions for the next decade by analyzing the correlation between land use types and carbon emissions using the gray model. This analysis is based on land use panel data spanning from 2007 to 2021. The study applies the FLUS-Markov model to simulate Fujian’s land use in 2030. A multi-objective optimization model is developed from a low-carbon perspective, integrating carbon emissions, economic, and ecological factors. The study explores land use under three scenarios: natural development scenario (NS), low carbon scenario (LCS), and comprehensive scenario (CS). Findings highlight the relationship between land use-related carbon emissions, urbanization, and relevant policies in Fujian. The FLUS-Markov simulations suggest that under the NS scenario, carbon emissions in 2030 will reach 77.829 million tons, an increase of 11.013 million tons from 2020. In contrast, the LCS demonstrates that optimizing land use structures can effectively balance carbon reduction, economic growth, and ecological preservation. Under the CS, 2030 emissions could be reduced by 7.2854 million tons while maintaining economic and ecological benefits. Despite variations in construction land expansion across these scenarios, all follow a “one belt, one core” development pattern. The study concludes with policy recommendations, including industrial layout optimization and clean energy promotion. These findings support the alignment of land use optimization with Fujian’s future development needs, offering guidance for land-use planning and policies focused on low-carbon objectives. |
