Cryptosporidiosis threat under climate change in China: prediction and validation of habitat suitability and outbreak risk for human-derived Cryptosporidium based on ecological niche models

Autor: Xu Wang, Yanyan Jiang, Weiping Wu, Xiaozhou He, Zhenghuan Wang, Yayi Guan, Ning Xu, Qilu Chen, Yujuan Shen, Jianping Cao
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2049-9957
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01085-0
Popis: Abstract Background Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp., and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors. In the present study, the potential spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium in China was predicted based on ecological niche models for cryptosporidiosis epidemic risk warning and prevention and control. Methods The applicability of existing Cryptosporidium presence points in ENM analysis was investigated based on data from monitoring sites in 2011–2019. Cryptosporidium occurrence data for China and neighboring countries were extracted and used to construct the ENMs, namely Maxent, Bioclim, Domain, and Garp. Models were evaluated based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, Kappa, and True Skill Statistic coefficients. The best model was constructed using Cryptosporidium data and climate variables during 1986‒2010, and used to analyze the effects of climate factors on Cryptosporidium distribution. The climate variables for the period 2011‒2100 were projected to the simulation results to predict the ecological adaptability and potential distribution of Cryptosporidium in future in China. Results The Maxent model (AUC = 0.95, maximum Kappa = 0.91, maximum TSS = 1.00) fit better than the other three models and was thus considered the best ENM for predicting Cryptosporidium habitat suitability. The major suitable habitats for human-derived Cryptosporidium in China were located in some high-population density areas, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the Huai and the Pearl River Basins (cloglog value of habitat suitability > 0.9). Under future climate change, non-suitable habitats for Cryptosporidium will shrink, while highly suitable habitats will expand significantly (χ 2 = 76.641, P
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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