| Popis: |
This research acquired data from the Central Weather Bureau Observation Data Inquiry System (CODIS) for historical weather information, such as observation time, temperature, humidity, wind speed, global radiation, etc., and constructed a historical weather database by using Excel software. Least square support vector machine (LSSVM) was used to forecast wind speed and solar radiation; then, the power output of wind and solar was derived. Considering factors of the demand response and the load and electricity pricing, a maximized risk income model of the virtual power plant (VPP) is established based on conditional value-at-risk (CVAR). An enhanced bacterial foraging algorithm (EBFA) was proposed to solve the risk dispatch problem of a VPP in this paper. In an EBFA, the stochastic weight trade-off is embedded to improve the behavior pattern of individual bacteria to enhance their sorting efficiency and accuracy in a high-dimension solution space. Various moving patterns of EBFA were considered for improvement, which were demonstrated by using a VPP system on Penghu island, Taiwan. Many scenarios were created, including various seasons, power rebate pricings, and confidence levels, so the maximal risk and return of VPP could be simulated and analyzed. Simulation and tests show a positive result for a VPP to perform the power dispatch by maximizing risk income. This paper also provides a guideline for the VPP to handle the risk management. |
