| Autor: |
Yannik Behr, Steve Sherburn, Tony Hurst |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2023 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Journal of Applied Volcanology, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2023) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2191-5040 |
| DOI: |
10.1186/s13617-022-00125-y |
| Popis: |
Abstract Volcanic lakes often capture a significant amount of volcanic heat emission and thus provide a unique opportunity to monitor changes inside the volcano. We present a Bayesian inversion method to automatically infer changes in volcanic heat emission over time at the base of a volcanic lake from lake monitoring data using a non-linear Kalman Smoother. Our method accounts for the, sometimes large, uncertainties in observations and the underlying physics-based model to generate probabilistic estimates of heat emission. We verify our results using a synthetic test case and then estimate the daily heat input rate into Mt. Ruapehu’s Crater Lake, New Zealand, between 2016 and 2022. Time-frequency analysis of the heat input rate shows dominant periods of heating cycles ranged between 100 - 250 days. The period between 2017 and 2020 was dominated by shorter cycles and greater-than-average heat input rate which points to changes in the magmatic heat supply and the hydrothermal system during this time. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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