Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number
| Autor: | E. Echer, N. R. Rigozo, D. J. R. Nordemann, L. E. A. Vieira |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2004 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Annales Geophysicae, Vol 22, Pp 2239-2243 (2004) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 0992-7689 1432-0576 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/angeo-22-2239-2004 |
| Popis: | Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles 17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods significant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine series to reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and 24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2 against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178 |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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