Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics

Autor: Martin Rypdal, George Sugihara
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Communications, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2019)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y
Popis: Directly measuring the size of the susceptible population is usually unfeasible before dengue outbreaks. Here, the authors show that the stability of low-incidence periods provides a proxy measure, which can be estimated from incidence data, and show its utility for forecasting outbreaks.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals