| Autor: |
Melissa M. Bilec, Roberto Schaeffer, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba, Joe Marriott, André Frossard Pereira de Lucena, Alexander T. Dale |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2013 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Energies, Vol 6, Iss 7, Pp 3182-3208 (2013) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1996-1073 |
| DOI: |
10.3390/en6073182 |
| Popis: |
Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions) rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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