Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Autor: Wenwen Zheng, Weiwei Zhu, Shengqiang Yu, Kangqi Li, Yuexia Ding, Qingna Wu, Qiling Tang, Quan Zhao, Congxiao Lu, Chenyu Guo
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMC Cancer, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1471-2407
42595878
DOI: 10.1186/s12885-020-07586-7
Popis: Abstract Background Heterogeneity of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) constraints accurate prognosis prediction of the tumor. We therefore aimed at developing a novel nomogram for accurate prediction of overall survival (OS) of patients with metastatic RCC. Methods We extracted 2010 to 2016 data for metastatic RCC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and randomly stratified them equally into training and validation sets. Prognostic factors for OS were analyzed using Cox regression models, and thereafter integrated into a 1, 3 and 5-year OS predictive nomogram. The nomogram was validated using the training and validation sets. The performance of this model was evaluated by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI), index of prediction accuracy (IPA), and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Overall, 2315 metastatic RCC patients in the SEER database who fulfilled our inclusion criteria were utilized in constructing a nomogram for predicting OS of newly diagnosed metastatic RCC patients. The nomogram incorporated eight clinical factors: Fuhrman grade, lymph node status, sarcomatoid feature, cancer-directed surgery and bone, brain, liver, and lung metastases, all significantly associated with OS. The model was superior to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (7th edition) both in training (C-indices, 0.701 vs. 0.612, P
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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