Is Brazil reaching malaria elimination? A time series analysis of malaria cases from 2011 to 2023.

Autor: Klauss Kleydmann Sabino Garcia, Seyi Soremekun, Amanda Amaral Abrahão, Paola Barbosa Marchesini, Chris Drakeley, Walter Massa Ramalho, André M Siqueira
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 4, Iss 1, p e0002845 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2767-3375
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002845&type=printable
Popis: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases occur in the Amazon region, mainly caused by Plasmodium vivax (~83%) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) species. Aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, Brazil aims to eliminate autochthonous malaria by 2035. This study aims to analyse epidemiological patterns of malaria in Brazil to discuss if Brazil is on track to meet malaria control targets. A time-series study was conducted analysing autochthonous malaria new infections notifications in the Brazilian Amazon region from 2011 until June 2023. Descriptive analyses were conducted, along with joinpoint regression and forecast models to verify trend and future behaviour. A total of 2,067,030 malaria cases were reported in the period. Trend analysis indicated a decreasing trend in all malaria infections since late 2017 (monthly reduction = 0.81%, p-value
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