Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model

Autor: Cláudia Eduarda Borges, Ronnie Von dos Santos Veloso, Crislaine Alves da Conceição, Débora Sampaio Mendes, Nadiezhda YZ Ramirez-Cabral, Farzin Shabani, Mahyat Shafapourtehrany, Marcela Carlota Nery, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38910-3
Popis: Abstract Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040–2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
Externí odkaz:
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje