Ensemble precipitation estimates based on an assessment of 21 gridded precipitation datasets to improve precipitation estimations across Madagascar

Autor: Camille C. Ollivier, Simon D. Carrière, Thomas Heath, Albert Olioso, Zo Rabefitia, Heritiana Rakoto, Ludovic Oudin, Frédéric Satgé
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 47, Iss , Pp 101400- (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2214-5818
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101400
Popis: Study region: this study focuses on Madagascar. This island is characterized by a great diversity of climate, due to trade winds and the varying topography. This country is also undergoing extreme rainfall events such as droughts and cyclones. Study focus: the rain gauge network of Madagascar is limited (about 30 stations). Consequently, we consider relevant satellite-based precipitation datasets to fill gaps in ground-based datasets. We assessed the reliability of 21 satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products (P-datasets) through a direct comparison with 24 rain gauge station measurements at the monthly time step, using four statistical indicators: Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Bias. Based on this first analysis, we produced a merged dataset based on a weighted average of the 21 products. New hydrological insights for the region: based on the KGE and the CC scores, WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim), CMORPH-BLD (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing satellite-gauge merged) and MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation) are the most accurate for estimating rainfall at the national scale. Additionally, the results reveal a high discrepancy between bio-climatic regions. The merged dataset reveals higher performance than the other products in all situations. These results demonstrate the usefulness of a merging approach in an area with a deficit of rainfall data and a climatic and topographic diversity.
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