| Popis: |
High penetration of variable generation like wind in modern power systems results in frequent load-generation imbalances. Additional spinning reserves and balancing services are deployed to reduce or avoid such imbalances. However, these additional balancing services result in increased total operation costs and it is generally shifted to Wind Power Generation Companies (WPGC) as Deviation Charges (DCs). The high DCs diminish the profitability of WPGCs. DCs are directly proportional to forecasting errors and can be reduced by enhancing forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to reduce DCs. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network and it is capable of learning long-term and short-term dependencies effectively. Therefore, the LSTM network can produce minimal error wind power forecasts and this helps to reduce DCs. The performance of the proposed LSTM network is realized using the real system data. Results obtained from the proposed LSTM model are compared with various forecasting models like ARIMA, ANN, and SVR. The comparison shows that the proposed LSTM model shows the least total DCs on most of the days followed by ANN, SVR, and ARIMA. The proposed LSTM, ANN, SVR, and ARIMA models show an average total DC of 6194.25$, 8459.32$, 15822.22$, and 38269.89$ respectively. Thus, the proposed LSTM model is capable of reducing 517.82%, 155.43%, and 36.56% DCs from ARIMA, SVR, and ANN models respectively, and helps the WPGCs to enhance their profitability. |
