Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling analysis with high-and-moderate risk populations

Autor: Salihu S. Musa, Isa A. Baba, Abdullahi Yusuf, Tukur A. Sulaiman, Aliyu I. Aliyu, Shi Zhao, Daihai He
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Results in Physics, Vol 26, Iss , Pp 104290- (2021)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2211-3797
DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104290
Popis: Nigeria is second to South Africa with the highest reported cases of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we employ an SEIR-based compartmental model to study and analyze the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Nigeria. The model incorporates different group of populations (that is, high- and- moderate risk populations) and is use to investigate the influence on each population on the overall transmission dynamics.The model, which is fitted well to the data, is qualitatively analyzed to evaluate the impacts of different schemes for controlstrategies. Mathematical analysis reveals that the model has two equilibria; i.e., disease-free equilibrium (DFE) which is local asymptotic stability (LAS) if the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than 1; and unstable for R0>1, and an endemic equilibrium (EE) which is globally asymptotic stability (LAS) whenever R0>1. Furthermore, we find that the model undergoes a phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB, a coexistence of stable DFE and stable EE even if the R0
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