Modelling the Behaviour of Currency Exchange Rates with Singular Spectrum Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

Autor: Paulo Canas Rodrigues, Olushina Olawale Awe, Jonatha Sousa Pimentel, Rahim Mahmoudvand
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Stats, Vol 3, Iss 2, Pp 137-157 (2020)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2571-905X
DOI: 10.3390/stats3020012
Popis: A proper understanding and analysis of suitable models involved in forecasting currency exchange rates dynamics is essential to provide reliable information about the economy. This paper deals with model fit and model forecasting of eight time series of historical data about currency exchange rate considering the United States dollar as reference. The time series techniques: classical autoregressive integrated moving average model, the non-parametric univariate and multivariate singular spectrum analysis (SSA), artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, and a recent prominent hybrid method that combines SSA and ANN, are considered and their performance compared in terms of model fit and model forecasting. Moreover, specific methodological and computational adaptations were conducted to allow for these analyses and comparisons.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals