| Autor: |
Hyun Ho Shin, Carlos Sauer Ayala, Pastor Pérez-Estigarribia, Sebastián Grillo, Leticia Segovia-Cabrera, Miguel García-Torres, Carlos Gaona, Sandra Irala, María Esther Pedrozo, Guillermo Sequera, José Luis Vázquez Noguera, Eduardo De Los Santos |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Applied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 20, p 9726 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2076-3417 |
| DOI: |
10.3390/app11209726 |
| Popis: |
Forecasting the dynamics of the number of cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a given population is a challenging task due to behavioural changes which occur over short periods. Planning of hospital resources and containment measures in the near term require a scenario analysis and the use of predictive models to gain insight into possible outcomes for each scenario. In this paper, we present the SEIR-H epidemiological model for the spread dynamics in a given population and the impact of COVID-19 in the local health system. It was developed as an extension of the classic SEIR model to account for required hospital resources and behavioural changes of the population in response to containment measures. Time-varying parameters such as transmissibility are estimated using Bayesian methods, based on the database of reported cases with a moving time-window strategy. The assessment of the model offers reasonable results with estimated parameters and simulations, reflecting the observed dynamics in Paraguay. The proposed model can be used to simulate future scenarios and possible effects of containment strategies, to guide the public institution response based on the available resources in the local health system. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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