Assessing the effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in Kokcha River, Afghanistan

Autor: Hedayatullah Shams, Asif Khan, Kashif Haleem, Saqib Mahmood
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 15, Iss 5, Pp 2464-2483 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2040-2244
2408-9354
DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.043
Popis: This study critically assesses the combined effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, Afghanistan, spanning the period from 2010 to 2021 and projecting forward to 2088–2099. Through the application of a bias-corrected model, we achieved high accuracy in temperature and precipitation simulations, with notable NSE values of 0.9 and 0.69, and R2 values of 0.92 and 0.78, respectively. Future streamflow simulations under different scenarios highlight climate change as the major driver influencing flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, contributing to 101.1% of the total variation, while land-use change has a minimal contribution of −1.1%. Our analysis of precipitation, average temperature, and streamflow data reveals significant patterns and changes, with future projections indicating a gradual decline in precipitation levels, mean temperature, and streamflow. Flood frequency analysis for return periods of 10, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, considering different scenarios, underscores the likelihood of floods of varying magnitudes. Notably, the highest streamflow spikes under both scenarios highlight the impact of futuristic air temperature and precipitation on flood recurrence. The study advocates prioritizing climate change adaptation and resilient land-use strategies to ensure sustainable water resource management, emphasizing the mitigation of potential flood risks. HIGHLIGHTS Utilized SWAT model to analyze climate and land-use impacts on streamflow.; Utilized multiple scenarios to isolate climate and land-use change impacts on streamflow.; Employed the CA-ANN model for forecasting future land use patterns; Identified climate change as exerting a more significant impact on streamflow in comparison to changes in land use.;
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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