Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?

Autor:	Marco Rubilar-González, Gabriel Pino
Jazyk:	angličtina
Rok vydání:	2017
Předmět:	Business cycle phases Expectations Economic Sentiment Indicator Public finance K4430-4675 Economic growth development planning HD72-88
Zdroj:	SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 141-161 (2017)
Druh dokumentu:	article
ISSN:	1869-4187 1869-4195
DOI:	10.1007/s13209-017-0170-0
Popis:	Abstract By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers who can focus their efforts on strengthening economies identified as more sensitive to international disturbances. Our results also reveal a lack of synchronization of the expectations across the Euro-Area. This also takes importance for policy implications given common public policies can have undesired impacts across the different Euro-Area economies.
Databáze:	Directory of Open Access Journals
Externí odkaz:	https://doaj.org/article/35bc0d737c354b9196869bbf281bc8ca Zobrazit plný text záznamu Full text from SpringerLink View record in DOAJ