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Abstract Background A high triglyceride-glucose index (TyG) is associated with a higher risk of incident heart failure. However, the effects of longitudinal patterns of TyG index on the risk of heart failure remain to be characterized. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to characterize the relationship between the trajectory of TyG index and the risk of heart failure. Methods We performed a prospective study of 56,149 participants in the Kailuan study who attended three consecutive surveys in 2006–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010–2011 and had no history of heart failure or cancer before the third wave survey (2010–2011). The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2], and we used latent mixture modeling to characterize the trajectory of the TyG index over the period 2006–2010. Additionally, Cox proportional risk models were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident heart failure for the various TyG index trajectory groups. Results From 2006 to 2010, four different TyG trajectories were identified: low-stable (n = 13,554; range, 7.98–8.07), moderate low-stable (n = 29,435; range, 8.60–8.65), moderate high-stable (n = 11,262; range, 9.31–9.30), and elevated-stable (n = 1,898; range, 10.04–10.25). A total of 1,312 new heart failure events occurred during a median follow-up period of 10.04 years. After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident heart failure for the elevated-stable, moderate high-stable, and moderate low-stable groups were 1.55 (1.15, 2.08), 1.32 (1.08, 1.60), and 1.17 (0.99, 1.37), respectively, compared to the low-stable group. Conclusions Higher TyG index trajectories were associated with a higher risk of heart failure. This suggests that monitoring TyG index trajectory may help identify individuals at high risk for heart failure and highlights the importance of early control of blood glucose and lipids for the prevention of heart failure. |
