The prediction of exit choice using cumulative prospect value

Autor: Dongli Gao, Wei Xie, Ruifeng Cao, Eric Wai Ming Lee, Richard Kwok Kit Yuen, Jingwen Weng
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 20-25 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2666-4496
DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.003
Popis: Exit choice is essential for pedestrian safety and evacuation efficiency during the context of an emergency. Cumulative prospect theory is a widespread realistic decision-making theory that can transform choice outcomes and probabilities into subjective terms and integrate them as a parameter of cumulative prospect value (CPV), which determines the decision. The main contribution of this paper is the use of the CPV to predict exit choice. Furthermore, the different decision-making rules including Max, exponential(Expo), and Ratio (i.e., the three variable choice functions) were summarized and examined. This study used a confusion matrix to compare the predicted results with experimental data. Consequently, the parameters of Accuracy and F1-score showed that the predictions from Max and Expo were significantly more realistic while the results from Ratio were much more robust.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals