Solar Irradiance Forecasting with Transformer Model

Autor: Jiří Pospíchal, Martin Kubovčík, Iveta Dirgová Luptáková
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Applied Sciences, Vol 12, Iss 17, p 8852 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2076-3417
DOI: 10.3390/app12178852
Popis: Solar energy is one of the most popular sources of renewable energy today. It is therefore essential to be able to predict solar power generation and adapt energy needs to these predictions. This paper uses the Transformer deep neural network model, in which the attention mechanism is typically applied in NLP or vision problems. Here, it is extended by combining features based on their spatiotemporal properties in solar irradiance prediction. The results were predicted for arbitrary long-time horizons since the prediction is always 1 day ahead, which can be included at the end along the timestep axis of the input data and the first timestep representing the oldest timestep removed. A maximum worst-case mean absolute percentage error of 3.45% for the one-day-ahead prediction was obtained, which gave better results than the directly competing methods.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals