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Abstract Background The full potential of competing risk modeling approaches in the context of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients has yet to be fully harnessed. This study aims to address this gap by developing a sophisticated competing risk model specifically designed to predict specific mortality in DLBCL patients. Methods We extracted DLBCL patients’ data from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. To identify relevant variables, we conducted a two-step screening process using univariate and multivariate Fine and Gray regression analyses. Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed based on the results. The model’s consistency index (C-index) was calculated to assess its performance. Additionally, calibration curves and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to validate the model’s effectiveness. Results This study enrolled a total of 24,402 patients. The feature selection analysis identified 13 variables that were statistically significant and therefore included in the model. The model validation results demonstrated that the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for predicting 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year DLBCL-specific mortality was 0.748, 0.718, and 0.698, respectively, in the training cohort. In the validation cohort, the AUC values were 0.747, 0.721, and 0.697. The calibration curves indicated good consistency between the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion The most significant predictor of DLBCL-specific mortality is the age of the patient, followed by the Ann Arbor stage and the administration of chemotherapy. This predictive model has the potential to facilitate the identification of high-risk DLBCL patients by clinicians, ultimately leading to improved prognosis. |
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