Systems dynamics and causal configurations: Using dynamic pattern synthesis for macroeconomic comparative research
| Autor: | David Alemna, Philip Haynes |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2024 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Methodological Innovations, Vol 17 (2024) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 2059-7991 20597991 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/20597991241256791 |
| Popis: | Dynamic Pattern Synthesis (DPS) provides a new longitudinal method for evaluating the impacts of macroeconomic and public policy interventions. Situated within complexity theory and critical realism, it has evolved from the established methods of Cluster Analysis and Configurational Modelling approaches. Dynamic Pattern Synthesis identifies case convergence and divergence (using quantitative techniques), while remaining close to the qualitative uniqueness of each case. In this paper, the DPS approach is used to consider macroeconomic convergence across Sub-Saharan Africa during the Millennium Development Goals, and the possible impacts of IMF interventions in stimulating long-term macroeconomic outcomes. The findings reveal a high degree of economic instability experienced across the region and varying responses to an external shock. The importance of ‘outliers’ and inconsistency in country convergence are also observed. The DPS method highlights the importance of individual country experiences in relation to external shocks. When factoring in IMF interventions, the findings highlight multiple paths to a given policy outcome, rather than a single optimal economic strategy. This opens up the debate on policy issues associated with economic complexity, including how best to create an overall environment of stability that might promote convergence and reduce the instability that undermines planning and investment. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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