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Abstract Background Asthma exacerbations are important events that affect disease control, but predictive factors for severe or moderate exacerbations are not known. The objective was to study the predictive factors for moderate (ME) and severe (SE) exacerbations in asthma patients receiving outpatient care. Methods Patients aged > 12 years with asthma were included in the study and followed-up at 4-monthly intervals over a 12-month period. Clinical (severity, level of control, asthma control test [ACT]), atopic, functional, inflammatory, SE and ME parameters were recorded. Univariate analysis was used to compare data from patients presenting at least 1 SE or ME during the follow-up period vs no exacerbations. Statistically significant (p 80%). Twenty-seven patients (8%) had a SE and 183 had a ME (58.5%) during follow-up. In the case of SEs, the only predictive factor identified in the multiple analysis was previous SE (baseline visit OR 4.218 95% CI 1.53-11.58, 4-month follow-up OR 6.88 95% CI 2.018-23.51) and inhalation technique (OR 3.572 95% CI 1.324-9.638). In the case of MEs, the only predictive factor found in the multiple analysis were previous ME (baseline visit OR 2.90 95% CI 1.54-5.48, 4-month follow- up OR 1.702 95% CI 1.146-2.529). Conclusions The primary predictive factor for SE or ME is prior SE or ME, respectively. SEs seem to constitute a specific patient "phenotype", in which the sole predictive factor is prior SEs. |
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