| Autor: |
Éadaoin M. Butler, Avinesh Pillai, Susan M. B. Morton, Blake M. Seers, Caroline G. Walker, Kien Ly, El-Shadan Tautolo, Marewa Glover, Rachael W. Taylor, Wayne S. Cutfield, José G. B. Derraik, COPABS Collaborators |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
| DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-021-85557-z |
| Popis: |
Abstract Several early childhood obesity prediction models have been developed, but none for New Zealand's diverse population. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting obesity in 4–5-year-old New Zealand children, using parental and infant data from the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) cohort. Obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI) for age and sex ≥ 95th percentile. Data on GUiNZ children were used for derivation (n = 1731) and internal validation (n = 713). External validation was performed using data from the Prevention of Overweight in Infancy Study (POI, n = 383) and Pacific Islands Families Study (PIF, n = 135) cohorts. The final model included: birth weight, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, paternal BMI, and infant weight gain. Discrimination accuracy was adequate [AUROC = 0.74 (0.71–0.77)], remained so when validated internally [AUROC = 0.73 (0.68–0.78)] and externally on PIF [AUROC = 0.74 [0.66–0.82)] and POI [AUROC = 0.80 (0.71–0.90)]. Positive predictive values were variable but low across the risk threshold range (GUiNZ derivation 19–54%; GUiNZ validation 19–48%; and POI 8–24%), although more consistent in the PIF cohort (52–61%), all indicating high rates of false positives. Although this early childhood obesity prediction model could inform early obesity prevention, high rates of false positives might create unwarranted anxiety for families. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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