A Strep A vaccine global demand and return on investment forecast to inform industry research and development prioritization

Autor: Donald R. Walkinshaw, Meghan E. E. Wright, Marni Williams, Tanya M. F. Scarapicchia, Jean-Louis Excler, Ryan E. Wiley, Anne E. Mullin
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: npj Vaccines, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2059-0105
DOI: 10.1038/s41541-023-00690-2
Popis: Abstract Investment in Strep A vaccine R&D is disproportionately low relative to the large burden of Strep A diseases globally. This study presents a novel Strep A vaccine global demand and financial forecast model with estimates of potential global demand and associated revenue and profits for a hypothetical Strep A vaccine as well as a net present value (NPV) analysis of return on capital investments required to develop the vaccine. A positive NPV was calculated for a variety of developer scenarios and target populations, including the global rollout of the vaccine in private and public markets by a multinational pharmaceutical corporation and a staged rollout by a developing country vaccine manufacturer for both infant and child populations. The results suggest there is a viable commercial market for a Strep A vaccine. It is hoped that this study will help to inform industry decision-making and drive increased prioritization of, and investment in, Strep A vaccine research and development.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals