Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya.

Autor: Peninah M Munyua, R Mbabu Murithi, Peter Ithondeka, Allen Hightower, Samuel M Thumbi, Samuel A Anyangu, Jusper Kiplimo, Bernard Bett, Anton Vrieling, Robert F Breiman, M Kariuki Njenga
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 1, p e0144570 (2016)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144570
Popis: BACKGROUND:To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. METHODS:Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 -
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