| Autor: |
Aliyeva Tarana, Rzayeva Ulviyya, Azizova Reyhan |
| Jazyk: |
English<br />French |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
SHS Web of Conferences, Vol 92, p 01001 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2261-2424 |
| DOI: |
10.1051/shsconf/20219201001 |
| Popis: |
Research background: The study uses the key parameters of the spread of the epidemic, dividing the population into several groups S - susceptible, E - exposed, I - infectious, R - recovered, D - dead. It is found that the model behaves differently depending on the R₀ indicator - the average number of people that one infected manages to infect. Measures to suppress the epidemic undertaken by Azerbaijan and their effectiveness have been considered. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to model the current dynamics of the disease for future forecasting. The model takes into account all the main parameters of the epidemic: the proportion of severe patients and the mortality rate depending on the age of the patients, the duration of the incubation period and the infectious phase of the disease; incomplete registration of infected people due to the high prevalence of asymptomatic disease and insufficient testing; possible measures to contain and suppress the epidemic and their impact on R₀. Methods: The article uses the linear regression method, which consists in finding estimates of unknown parameters and the formation of a functional relationship between the sickness rate and the factors determining it. Findings & Value added: The constructed model analyzes the growth of patients in the country after removing the restrictive measures taken in early May on the basis of real statistics. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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