Modeling impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics in St. Louis
| Autor: | Alexanderia Lacy, Morganne Igoe, Praachi Das, Trevor Farthing, Alun L. Lloyd, Cristina Lanzas, Agricola Odoi, Suzanne Lenhart |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol 17, Iss 1 (2023) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 17513758 1751-3766 1751-3758 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/17513758.2023.2287084 |
| Popis: | ABSTRACTThe region of St. Louis, Missouri, has displayed a high level of heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases, hospitalization, and vaccination coverage. We investigate how human mobility, vaccination, and time-varying transmission rates influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmission in five counties in the St. Louis area. A COVID-19 model with a system of ordinary differential equations was developed to illustrate the dynamics with a fully vaccinated class. Using the weekly number of vaccinations, cases, and hospitalization data from five counties in the greater St. Louis area in 2021, parameter estimation for the model was completed. The transmission coefficients for each county changed four times in that year to fit the model and the changing behaviour. We predicted the changes in disease spread under scenarios with increased vaccination coverage. SafeGraph local movement data were used to connect the forces of infection across various counties. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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