| Autor: |
Angus McLure, Patricia M. Graves, Colleen Lau, Callum Shaw, Kathryn Glass |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Epidemics, Vol 40, Iss , Pp 100591- (2022) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1755-4365 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100591 |
| Popis: |
Background: As part of the global effort to eliminate the debilitating mosquito-borne disease lymphatic filariasis (LF), seven rounds of two-drug (diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) mass drug administration (MDA) were conducted in American Samoa over 2000–2006. However subsequent surveys demonstrated ongoing transmission prompting further rounds of three-drug (diethylcarbamazine, albendazole, and ivermectin) MDA starting in 2018. Methods: We extend GEOFIL, a spatially-explicit agent-based model of LF transmission to predict the probability and timing of the local elimination or resurgence of LF for different MDA scenarios starting in 2018: two-drug vs. three-drug MDA, two to seven annual rounds, and population coverage rates of 55–75%. We developed an interactive visualisation comparing the effect of MDA strategies on different outcomes. Results: At least six annual rounds of three-drug MDA treating 75% of the population were required to achieve LF elimination in American Samoa by 2035 in > 50% of simulations. In scenarios where MDA did not achieve elimination, prevalence doubled approximately every three years, even if MDA reduced antigen prevalence to |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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