Effect of warming climate on extreme daily rainfall depth using non-stationary Gumbel model with temperature co-variate
| Autor: | Okjeong Lee, Inkyeong Sim, Sangdan Kim |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Water Supply, Vol 21, Iss 8, Pp 4153-4162 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1606-9749 1607-0798 |
| DOI: | 10.2166/ws.2021.166 |
| Popis: | In this study, non-stationary frequency analysis was carried out to apply non-stationarity of extreme rainfall driven by climate change using the scale parameter of two parameters of the Gumbel distribution (GUM) as a co-variate function. The surface air temperature (SAT) or dew-point temperature (DPT) is applied as the co-variate. The optimal model was selected by comparing AICs, and 17 of 60 sites were found to be suitable for the non-stationary GUM model. In addition, SAT was chosen as the more appropriate co-variate among 13 of the 17 sites. As a result of estimating changes in design rainfall depth with future SAT rises at 13 sites, it is likely to increase by 10% in 2040 and 18% in 2070. HIGHLIGHTS Rainfall extremes in Korea have non-stationary characteristics with co-variate of surface air temperature or dew-point temperature.; Non-stationary frequency analysis using SAT or DPT can be a reasonable approach for analyzing future rainfall extremes.; |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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