Improved exponential smoothing grey-holt models for electricity price forecasting using whale optimization

Autor: Benjamin Salomon Diboma, Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Yong Wang, Prosper Gopdjim Noumo, Jean Gaston Tamba
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: MethodsX, Vol 13, Iss , Pp 102926- (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2215-0161
DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.102926
Popis: This study introduces a ground-breaking approach, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA)-based multivariate exponential smoothing Grey-Holt (GMHES) model, designed for electricity price forecasting. Key features of the proposed WOA-GMHES(1,N) model include leveraging historical data to comprehend the underlying trends in electricity prices and utilizing the WOA algorithm for adaptive optimization of model parameters to capture evolving market dynamics. Evaluating the model on authentic high- and low-voltage electricity price data from Cameroon demonstrates its superiority over competing models. The WOA-GMHES(1,N) model achieves remarkable performance with RMSE and SMAPE scores of 12.63 and 0.01 %, respectively, showcasing its accuracy and reliability. Notably, the model proves to be computationally efficient, generating forecasts in
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals