Association between meteorological variations and the superspreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 infections

Autor: Ka Chun Chong, Shi Zhao, Chi Tim Hung, Katherine Min Jia, Janice Ying-en Ho, Holly Ching Yu Lam, Xiaoting Jiang, Conglu Li, Guozhang Lin, Carrie Ho Kwan Yam, Tsz Yu Chow, Yawen Wang, Kehang Li, Huwen Wang, Yuchen Wei, Zihao Guo, Eng Kiong Yeoh
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Environment International, Vol 188, Iss , Pp 108762- (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 0160-4120
11338334
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108762
Popis: Background: While many investigations examined the association between environmental covariates and COVID-19 incidence, none have examined their relationship with superspreading, a characteristic describing very few individuals disproportionally infecting a large number of people. Methods: Contact tracing data of all the laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong from February 16, 2020 to April 30, 2021 were used to form the infection clusters for estimating the time-varying dispersion parameter (kt), a measure of superspreading potential. Generalized additive models with identity link function were used to examine the association between negative-log kt (larger means higher superspreading potential) and the environmental covariates, adjusted with mobility metrics that account for the effect of social distancing measures. Results: A total of 6,645 clusters covering 11,717 cases were reported over the study period. After centering at the median temperature, a lower ambient temperature at 10th percentile (18.2 °C) was significantly associated with a lower estimate of negative-log kt (adjusted expected change: −0.239 [95 % CI: −0.431 to −0.048]). While a U-shaped relationship between relative humidity and negative-log kt was observed, an inverted U-shaped relationship with actual vapour pressure was found. A higher total rainfall was significantly associated with lower estimates of negative-log kt. Conclusions: This study demonstrated a link between meteorological factors and the superspreading potential of COVID-19. We speculated that cold weather and rainy days reduced the social activities of individuals minimizing the interaction with others and the risk of spreading the diseases in high-risk facilities or large clusters, while the extremities of relative humidity may favor the stability and survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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