| Autor: |
Dennis A. Navarro Mamani, Heydi Ramos Huere, Renzo Vera Buendia, Miguel Rojas, Wilfredo Arque Chunga, Edgar Valdez Gutierrez, Walter Vergara Abarca, Hermelinda Rivera Gerónimo, Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2023 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Viruses, Vol 15, Iss 4, p 892 (2023) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1999-4915 |
| DOI: |
10.3390/v15040892 |
| Popis: |
Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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