Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control

Autor:	Daihai He, Shi Zhao, Xiaoke Xu, Qiangying Lin, Zian Zhuang, Peihua Cao, Maggie H. Wang, Yijun Lou, Li Xiao, Ye Wu, Lin Yang
Jazyk:	angličtina
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	COVID-19 Basic reproductive number Dispersion Negative binomial Mitigation Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Zdroj:	BMC Public Health, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-4 (2020)
Druh dokumentu:	article
ISSN:	1471-2458
DOI:	10.1186/s12889-020-09624-2
Popis:	Abstract The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.
Databáze:	Directory of Open Access Journals
Externí odkaz:	https://doaj.org/article/1bfe36b8f929442cbe448df10f8ff558 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View record in DOAJ Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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