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Christian Madelaire,1,2 Thomas Gerds,3,4 Lars Køber,5 Finn Gustafsson,5 Charlotte Andersson,1,6 Søren Lund Kristensen,5 Jawad Haider Butt,1 Deewa Zahir Anjum,1 Ann Banke,2 Emil Loldrup Fosbøl,5 Gunnar Gislason,1,4 Christian Torp-Pedersen,7 Morten Schou1 1Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Hellerup, Denmark; 2Department of Cardiology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; 3Section of Biostatistics, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; 4The Danish Heart Foundation, Copenhagen, Denmark; 5Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; 6Department of Medicine, Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Boston Medical Center, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA; 7Department of Clinical Research and Cardiology, Nordsjællands Hospital, Hillerød, DenmarkCorrespondence: Christian Madelaire, Email Christian.madelaire@rsyd.dkBackground: Heart failure (HF) is associated with increased risk of death and a hospitalization, but for patients initiating guideline directed medical therapy, it is unknown how high these risks are compared to the general population – and how this may vary depending on age and comorbidity.Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients diagnosed with HF in the period 2011– 2017, surviving the initial 120 days after diagnosis. Patients who were on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/ angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) and beta-blocker were included and matched to 5 non-HF individuals from the background population each based on age and sex. We assessed the 5-year risk of all-cause death, HF and non-HF hospitalization according to sex and age and baseline comorbidity.Results: We included 35,367 patients with HF and 176,835 matched non-HF individuals. Patients with HF had a five-year excess risk (absolute risk difference) of death of 13% (31% [for HF] – 18% [for non-HF]), of HF hospitalization of 17% and of non-HF hospitalization of 24%. Excess risk of death increased with increasing age, whereas the relative risk decreased - for women in their twenties, the excess risk was 7%, risk ratio 7.2, while the excess risk was 18%, risk ratio 1.5 for women in their eighties. Having HF as a 60-year old man was associated with a five-year risk of death similar to a 75-year old man without HF. Further, HF was associated with an excess risk of non-HF hospitalization, ranging from 8% for patients > 85 years to 30% for patients < 30 years.Conclusion: Regardless of age, sex and comorbidity, HF was associated with excess risk of mortality and non-HF hospitalizations, but the relative risk ratio diminishes sharply with advancing age, which may influence allocation of resources for medical care across populations.Keywords: heart failure, excess risk, mortality, hospitalization |
