| Autor: |
François Goffinet, Paul T Seed, Jørn Olsen, Renato T Souza, Louise C Kenny, José Guilherme Cecatti, Ben W Mol, Jane E Norman, Jun Zhang, Ana Pilar Betran, Kym I E Snell, Richard D Riley, Seppo Heinonen, Anne Eskild, Fionnuala M McAuliffe, Mark Brown, Henk Groen, Alice Rumbold, Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch, Line Sletner, Anne Karen Jenum, Fionnuala Mone, Hema Mistry, Eric A P Steegers, Shigeru Saito, Arri Coomarasamy, Fabio Facchinetti, Lucilla Poston, Shakila Thangaratinam, SeonAe Yeo, Joyce L Browne, Eva Pajkrt, Wessel Ganzevoort, Kjell Salvesen, Helena Teede, Lucy Chappell, Maria Makrides, Guillermo Carroli, Javier Zamora, Pisake Lumbiganon, Asma Khalil, John Kingdom, Gustaaf Dekker, Robert Gibson, Lionel Carbillon, John Allotey, Dyuti Coomar, Jane West, Marleen Temmerman, Satoru Takeda, Federico Prefumo, Hannele Laivuori, Sohinee Bhattacharya, Sander M J van Kuijk, Lucinda Archer, Jenny Myers, Lisa M Askie, Sergio Ferrazzani, Melanie Smuk, Caroline A Crowther, Francesc Figueras, Lill Trogstad, Maureen Macleod, Claire T Roberts, François Audibert, Ary I Savitri, Lesley McCowan, Wendy S Meschino, Diane Farrar, Yves Giguère, Tianhua Huang, Hans Wolf, Tiziana Frusca, Silvia Salvi, Patrizia Vergani, Chie Nagata, George Daskalakis, Olav Lapaire, Enrico Ferrazzi, Baskaran Thilaganathan, Christopher Redman, Agustin Conde-Agudelo, Nelly Zavaleta, Josje Langenveld, Karlijn C Vollebregt, Jacques Massé, Francesca Crovetto, Mariana Widmer, Ignacio Herraiz, Alberto Galindo, Jean-Claude Forest, Stefan Verlohren, Luc Smits, Edouard Lecarpentier, Per Minor Magnus, Linda Gough, Alex Kwong, Akihide Ohkuchi, Fabricio Da Silva Costa, Athena P Souka, Rinat Gabbay-Benziv, Evan Sequeira, Rachel Katherine Morris, Ahmet A Baschat, Dewi Anggraini, Marleen van Gelder, Sadia Haqnawaz, Cuno SPM Uiterwaal, Annetine C Staff, Louise Bjoerkholt Andersen, Elisa Llurba Olive, Javier Arenas Ramírez, Peter A Zimmerman, Catherine Riddell, Joris van de Post, Sebastián E Illanes, Claudia Holzman, Pia M Villa, Luxmi Velauthar, Miriam van Oostwaard, Christina A Vinter, Camilla Haavaldsen, Inge Eisensee, Ernesto A Figueiró-Filho, Jacob A Lykke, Alfred Mbah, Gordon G S Smith, Read Salim, Annemarijne Adank, Rebecca E Allen, Jan Stener Jørgensen, Anthony O Odibo, Bassam G Haddad, Emily C Kleinrouweler, Ragnhild Bergene Skråstad, Kajantie Eero, Athanasios Pilalis, Lee Ann Hawkins |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
BMJ Medicine, Vol 3, Iss 1 (2024) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2754-0413 |
| DOI: |
10.1136/bmjmed-2023-000784 |
| Popis: |
Objective To predict birth weight at various potential gestational ages of delivery based on data routinely available at the first antenatal visit.Design Individual participant data meta-analysis.Data sources Individual participant data of four cohorts (237 228 pregnancies) from the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) network dataset.Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Studies in the IPPIC network were identified by searching major databases for studies reporting risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as pre-eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, and stillbirth, from database inception to August 2019. Data of four IPPIC cohorts (237 228 pregnancies) from the US (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 2018; 233 483 pregnancies), UK (Allen et al, 2017; 1045 pregnancies), Norway (STORK Groruddalen research programme, 2010; 823 pregnancies), and Australia (Rumbold et al, 2006; 1877 pregnancies) were included in the development of the model.Results The IPPIC birth weight model was developed with random intercept regression models with backward elimination for variable selection. Internal-external cross validation was performed to assess the study specific and pooled performance of the model, reported as calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed versus expected average birth weight ratio. Meta-analysis showed that the apparent performance of the model had good calibration (calibration slope 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.10; calibration-in-the-large 44.5 g, −18.4 to 107.3) with an observed versus expected average birth weight ratio of 1.02 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.07). The proportion of variation in birth weight explained by the model (R2) was 46.9% (range 32.7-56.1% in each cohort). On internal-external cross validation, the model showed good calibration and predictive performance when validated in three cohorts with a calibration slope of 0.90 (Allen cohort), 1.04 (STORK Groruddalen cohort), and 1.07 (Rumbold cohort), calibration-in-the-large of −22.3 g (Allen cohort), −33.42 (Rumbold cohort), and 86.4 g (STORK Groruddalen cohort), and observed versus expected ratio of 0.99 (Rumbold cohort), 1.00 (Allen cohort), and 1.03 (STORK Groruddalen cohort); respective pooled estimates were 1.00 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.23; calibration slope), 9.7 g (−154.3 to 173.8; calibration-in-the-large), and 1.00 (0.94 to 1.07; observed v expected ratio). The model predictions were more accurate (smaller mean square error) in the lower end of predicted birth weight, which is important in informing clinical decision making.Conclusions The IPPIC birth weight model allowed birth weight predictions for a range of possible gestational ages. The model explained about 50% of individual variation in birth weights, was well calibrated (especially in babies at high risk of fetal growth restriction and its complications), and showed promising performance in four different populations included in the individual participant data meta-analysis. Further research to examine the generalisability of performance in other countries, settings, and subgroups is required.Trial registration PROSPERO CRD42019135045 |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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