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Abstract Background Mental distress among retirees and older people is a severe public health challenge, and information on new risk groups is needed. This study aims to identify subgroups of old-age retirees with varying associations between low social support and mental distress by applying model-based recursive partitioning (MOB). Methods We used the Helsinki Health Study follow-up survey data of old-age retired former municipal sector employees of the City of Helsinki, Finland. Phase 1 data were collected in 2000–2002, when all participants were employed, Phase 2 in 2007, Phase 3 in 2012, Phase 4 in 2017, and Phase 5 in 2022 (n = 4,466, 81% women). Social support and covariates were measured at each Phase 1–5 and the outcome, mental distress (Depression Anxiety Stress Scales [DASS-21]) was measured at a single occasion, during Phase 5. The three subscales and the common factor of general distress were analysed separately. An approach rooted in computational statistics was used to investigate risk factor heterogeneity in the association of low social support and mental distress. MOB combines decision trees with regression analysis to identify subgroups with the most significant heterogeneity among risk factors. Results Median (IQR) general distress score from DASS-21 was 5.7 (3.0, 9.0), while Social Support Questionnaire number-score (SSQN) was 1.5 (1.15, 2.05). The primary effect modifier for the association between social support and general distress was education (p |
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