Model structure and ensemble size: Implications for predictions of groundwater age

Autor: Wesley Kitlasten, Catherine R. Moore, Brioch Hemmings
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 10 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2296-6463
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.972305
Popis: This paper examines the influence of simplified vertical discretization using 50- to four- layer models and ensemble size on history matching and predictions of groundwater age for a national scale model of New Zealand (approximately 265,000 km2). A reproducible workflow using a combination of opensource tools and custom python scripts is used to generate three models that use the same model domain and underlying data with only the vertical discretization changing between the models. The iterative ensemble smoother approach is used for history matching each model to the same synthetic dataset. The results show that: 1) the ensemble based mean objective function is not a good indicator of model predictive ability, 2) predictive failure from model structural errors in the simplified models are compounded by history matching, especially when small (
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals