Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations
| Autor: | Necibe Tuncer, Juan Torres, Maia Martcheva, Michael Barfield, Robert D. Holt |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 104-139 (2016) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1751-3758 1751-3766 17513758 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/17513758.2015.1111449 |
| Popis: | This paper introduces a time-since-recovery structured, multi-strain, multi-population model of avian influenza. Influenza A viruses infect many species of wild and domestic birds and are classified into two groups based on their ability to cause disease: low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Prior infection with LPAI provides partial immunity towards HPAI. The model introduced in this paper structures LPAI-recovered birds (wild and domestic) with time-since-recovery and includes cross-immunity towards HPAI that can fade with time. The model has a unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE), unique LPAI-only and HPAI-only equilibria and at least one coexistence equilibrium. We compute the reproduction numbers of LPAI ( $ {\mathcal R}_{\rm L} $ ) and HPAI ( $ {\mathcal R}_{\rm H} $ ) and show that the DFE is locally asymptotically stable when $ {\mathcal R}_{\rm L} 1 $ ( $ {\mathcal R}_{\rm H} >1 $ ) and it is locally asymptotically stable if HPAI (LPAI) cannot invade the equilibrium, that is, if the invasion number $ \hat {\mathcal {R}}_{\rm L}^{\rm H} |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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